With James Harden back in the lineup, the Nets have two of their three stars, but it took an all-time performance from Kevin Durant to stave off Milwaukee and take Game 5 in Brooklyn.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has put up some big games over the last three contests, but he saw his NBA Finals odds plummet on WynnBET after the Bucks dropped Game 5.
Will Durant and Harden have enough in them to win the series tonight? Oddsmakers aren’t so sure.
While a Game 7 isn’t what Brooklyn wants, fans can’t deny that a winner-take-all matchup between these two squads would be a game for the ages.
Heading into Game 6, there are still some questions the Nets have to answer in their supporting cast, and the Bucks need more consistency from their secondary stars if they want to avoid being sent home early.
Here are a few bold predictions for tonight’s matchup:
Nets and Bucks Combine for Under 220 Points
I know, I know life is too short to bet the under.
However, in this series, the under on the combined point total is 4-1 and was nearly 5-0. In fact, the 222 combined points in Game 5 just pushed the total to the over.
Tonight the total is set for 220 on WynnBET and I’m taking the under despite all of the great scorers on each team.
Let’s think about it, it took 49 points from Durant, and 34 from Antetokounmpo for the Game 5 over to hit. While I do think Harden is poised for a bounce-back game, he shot 1-for-10 in Game 5.
Brooklyn was shooting at an unreal pace early in this series, but the under was still the play in those games as well.
Milwaukee has to hang its hat on the defensive end of the floor, and as great as KD is, it’s a lot to ask him to score nearly 50 points and play all 48 minutes for the second straight game.
Kevin Durant Goes Under 6.5 Assists
I have been fading Durant’s assist props sporadically throughout these playoffs and I haven’t missed yet.
I stayed away in Game 5 with all of the Nets’ injuries, but I’m back to fade KD the playmaker in Game 6.
After his 10-assist, triple-double performance in Game 5, WynnBET has adjusted Durant’s assist prop to 6.5 for Game 6.
The under (+104) is the underdog to the over (-140) and I’m loving the under at those odds.
Durant has played 10 games this postseason, and he’s gone over six dimes just once, in the Nets’ Game 5 win. The 6.5-projection is a massive overreaction to Durant’s big game, and at plus odds, I can’t help but take the under here.
KD has been fantastic this postseason, but the Nets need him to score even more tonight with Kyrie Irving still out of the lineup. I think the 10-assist game was the outlier, not the norm, heading into tonight’s Game 6.
Jrue Holiday Scores Under 18.5 Points
Jrue Holiday has been a huge upgrade for the Bucks this postseason over Eric Bledsoe, but he hasn’t been an elite third scoring option.
Holiday, who averaged 17.7 points per game during the regular season, has a player prop for points at 18.5 on WynnBET for Game 6 and the under (+100) is looking like the bet to make.
This postseason, Holiday is averaging just 14.8 points per game on 43.3 percent shooting from the field and 28.6 percent from beyond the arc. He’s scored over 18.5 points just three times in nine games this postseason, and only one has come against Brooklyn.
That performance was Holiday’s 19-point game in Game 5, where he shot 7-for-16 from the field and made a playoff-high three 3-pointers.
Holiday has also shot just 17 free throws all postseason, which means if he isn’t making shots at a high rate, there haven't been many opportunities for easy baskets.
Holiday’s projection seems to be inflated from that strong game, and if he keeps shooting at the same rate, the under makes a lot of sense at plus odds.